Putin Strategic Genius.?
They have less tanks, artillery, planes, ships, pretty much every equipment you can think of has been reduced by between a quarter and about half.
But thats not really a big deal on its own. Russia had
cold war stocks coming out of their ears. They still have thousands more tanks and equipment to throw away. Even 2 more years from now, on current trajectory, i dont think it will look that different.
The problem for them is not military. Its economy. Any tinpot dictator in some desert shithole can get a couple thousand tanks together and look scary. If you neglect building up your economy and society, you can keep the military stuff going for a very long time. Thats the way these things go. Everything is fine until its not, and then the berlin wall is being torn apart by the bare hands of teenagers.
Assuming ukraine ends somewhere around where it is now without double digit territory changes, they have a few other old soviet blocs they could try to take back. And they may even succeed. But it doesnt change the fundamental problem of the wall that is
nato. A wall that has gotten stronger and is slowly, verrrrrry slowly, moving towards a war footing. 10, 20 years from now.
And thats when the losses of today are really going to be felt. The loss of development because instead of investing in infrastructure and domestic industries, they pissed it away fighting for resources when russia already had every resource under the sun. Instead of becoming an economic powerhouse and just buying the countries they want like china, they pissed away their window and pissed away decades of development that will likely never be made up for.
All a military really is, is a tangible representation of a countries economic output. You can fake it for a very long time. But when push comes to shove, ultimately russia is a gdp smaller than the state of texas or the province of guangdong. Nobody cares about this backwater. And its not just the 2022 war or 2014 war or even 2008 georgia. Is been pretty much since 1999 when putin came in. Instead of trying to make a shit ton of money and booming (they have a little just because of globalization but havent maximized it) like every other big player country, they just kept focusing on outdated thinking of tanks = power. Turns out, money is power. And money is tanks. Turns out, everything was just money all along